NTLM Profile for Lync External Web Services quit working for 4443?

So basically we have had Lync working fine for a couple years based on the old F5/Lync implementation guide. I am wanting to say maybe v 1.6 of the document. Anyways. all was working fine until sometime this week we noticed that the TMG servers failed connecting to the External Web Services on the FEs and the Directors on port 4443. Only things that have changed recently have been Windows/Microsoft updates. Now the only way I can get the TMGs to successfully connect to the VIPs for 4443 is to set the NTLM profile to "none". Any ideas?